BestWorld’s Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman’s Experiments
BestWorld’s Botmaster Jeremy Lichtman, along with Carolyn Meinel and Brian Labatte, are conducting two AI-enabled forecasting experiments:
First experiment, launched July 12, 2024:
Forecasts by Jeremy’s bestworldbot in the Q3 AI Forecasting Tournament on hundreds of geopolitical topics, updated weekdays, 10:30 Am EDT.
Second experiment, launched July 18, 2024:
Our Humans vs Multi-AI Panel Forecasting Experiment includes a bot created by Jeremy using five generative AIs: Perplexity, Claude, Mistral, Cohere, and OpenAI working together in a panel format. The humans currently are BestWorld staffers Brian LaBatte and Carolyn Meinel. Currently they are forecasting just one question through the end of September of 2024: “What is the probability that the US Federal Reserve Board will cut interest rates in September 2024?”
Third experiment, also launched July 18, 2024, Old Bot, using the same component AIs as the Multi-Panel experiment, but in a different format.
In the Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Competition, we are fielding bestworldbot, which uses five of the AIs used by our Humans vs Multi-AI Panel experiment, but forecasting somewhere between 300 to 500 questions every three months for a total of twelve months. Each question is only active for 24 hours. So it would be difficult for us humans to research and answer them fast enough. At the end of the competiton we will find out whether the winners will be the humans or the bots. We aren’t in it for the $120,000 prize pool. Seriously, we all have pledged to donate any winnings to BestWorld. Instead, our number one objective is research.
The competition still is open to new participants. It offers bot construction recipes, so anyone can play. Currently, only 51 competitors are on the leaderboard.
New! Carolyn’s novella, “The Optimizer Did It,” is her entry into the Superintelligence Imagined Creative Contest on the Risks of Superintelligence.
Our long term research goal is creation of a “What’s News and What’s Next” system of traditional journalism enhanced with forecasts of what will likely happen next. The objective is to give credibility to news reports by enabling the reader to rely on what we project will be what’s next. Details on our long term research here —>
New! Pictured below is the leaderboard of Metaculus’ Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament, with Jeremy’s bestworldbot at # 35, Sept. 10, 2024.
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